Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition no. 6,588 · August 5, 2026 · Regime defensive · for 66 days · 2 min read

◦ Index methodology v2.2. See the methodology.

The Perene Index recovered ground and closed at 43. The scene holds with no clear bias.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state43/100Today ▾ -8
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite32/100Today ▲ +1
Ânima · short-termthe market’s recent move59/100Today → 0
how to read?

Structural mood (Ânima 32) and recent move (59) diverge.

Risk below the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoAugust 31, 2025
    Ibovespa that day141,125 pts
    the archive suggested+7% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months180,464 pts (+28%)
    Reread the edition of August 31, 2025 →
  2. ○Five years agoDecember 2021
    Ibovespa 103,922 → 98,295 pts (-5% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveJanuary 2000
    Ibovespa 16,388 → 16,290 pts (-1% in 6m) · reread →

In 73 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 63% of the time — median +7.9% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 52% · median +1.3%
  • 6M: higher 60% · median +4.8%
  • 12M: higher 72% · median +9.5%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2023-10, 2023-09, 2024-06 · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. February 28, 2013Perene 43 · risk-on
  2. January 31, 2020Perene 43 · risk-on
  3. January 31, 2023Perene 44 · defensive
  4. May 31, 2004Perene 42
  5. August 31, 2007Perene 42
  6. June 30, 2002Perene 42
Today’s Read

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +4.8% over six months, with 60% positive episodes (n=25).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Cyclicals / defensives: defensives ahead, well below its historical norm
  • Ibovespa: 177,726 pts, +34.2% in 12 months
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 6,588 · Regime defensive · for 66 days · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Every defensive stretch in the Observatory →

← previous edition · 2026-08-04all editions · Observatory