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Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition of August 6, 2026 · Regime defensivo · for 67 days · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Index methodology v2.2. See the methodology.

The session shifted the risk reading. The Perene Index settled at 43 by day's end.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state43/100Today → 0
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite33/100Today → 0
Ânima · short-termthe market’s recent move59/100Today → 0
how to read?

Structural mood (Ânima 33) and recent move (59) diverge.

Risk below the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoAugust 31, 2025
    Ibovespa that day141,125 pts
    the archive suggested+7% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months180,464 pts (+28%)
    Reread the edition of August 31, 2025 →
  2. ○Five years agoDecember 2021
    Ibovespa 103,922 → 98,295 pts (-5% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveJanuary 2000
    Ibovespa 16,388 → 16,290 pts (-1% in 6m) · reread →

In 73 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 63% of the time — median +7.9% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 52% · median +1.3%
  • 6M: higher 60% · median +4.8%
  • 12M: higher 72% · median +9.5%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2023-10, 2023-09, 2024-06 · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. February 28, 2013Perene 43 · risk-on
  2. January 31, 2020Perene 43 · risk-on
  3. January 31, 2023Perene 44 · defensive
  4. May 31, 2004Perene 42
  5. August 31, 2007Perene 42
  6. June 30, 2002Perene 42
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is calibrating and the intermarket neutral.

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +4.8% over six months, with 60% positive episodes (n=25).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 177,726 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Regime defensivo · for 67 days · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Every defensive stretch in the Observatory →

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