Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition no. 6,623 · September 24, 2026 · Regime defensive · for 116 days · 2 min read

◦ Index methodology v2.2. See the methodology.

The continuity of recent days gave way to movement. The Perene Index eased to 55.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state55/100Today ▾ -8
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite44/100Today ▾ -1
Ânima · short-termthe market’s recent move57/100Today ▾ -2
how to read?
The market on the neutral plain.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoNovember 30, 2025
    Ibovespa that day158,611 pts
    the archive suggested+5% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months169,813 pts (+7%)
    Reread the edition of November 30, 2025 →
  2. ○Five years agoDecember 2021
    Ibovespa 103,922 → 98,295 pts (-5% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveMarch 2000
    Ibovespa 17,820 → 15,928 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 79 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 68% of the time — median +6.8% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 60% · median +1.3%
  • 6M: higher 60% · median +4.9%
  • 12M: higher 100% · median +19.6%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2024-11, 2022-07, 2026-03 · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. September 30, 2013Perene 55 · risk-on
  2. March 31, 2015Perene 55 · defensive
  3. February 28, 2003Perene 55
  4. March 31, 2017Perene 54 · neutral
  5. July 31, 2019Perene 54 · risk-on
  6. July 31, 2006Perene 54
Today’s Read

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +4.9% over six months, with 60% positive episodes (n=5).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • ciclicas-defensivas: calibrating
  • Ibovespa: 183,966 pts, +26.4% in 12 months
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 6,623 · Regime defensive · for 116 days · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Every defensive stretch in the Observatory →

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