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Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition no. 6,653 · November 9, 2026 · Regime defensive · for 162 days · 2 min read

◦ Index methodology v2.2. See the methodology.

The backdrop changed tone, and the mood gave ground again. Today, the Perene Index closed at 25.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state25/100Today ▲ +10
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite6/100Today ▲ +2
Ânima · short-termthe market’s recent move23/100Today ▲ +6
how to read?
Risk below the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoJuly 31, 2025
    Ibovespa that day133,071 pts
    the archive suggested+4% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months181,364 pts (+36%)
    Reread the edition of July 31, 2025 →
  2. ○Five years agoAugust 2021
    Ibovespa 118,781 → 111,593 pts (-6% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveJanuary 2000
    Ibovespa 16,388 → 16,290 pts (-1% in 6m) · reread →

In 65 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 63% of the time — median +5.4% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Similar cases — what came next

calibrating

Observed distribution, not a forecast · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. September 30, 2003Perene 25
  2. March 31, 2019Perene 26 · neutral
  3. April 30, 2020Perene 24 · risk-on
  4. November 30, 2022Perene 26 · defensive
  5. January 31, 2014Perene 24 · neutral
  6. November 30, 2009Perene 24
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • ciclicas-defensivas: calibrating
  • Ibovespa: 172,236 pts, +15.2% in 12 months
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 6,653 · Regime defensive · for 162 days · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Every defensive stretch in the Observatory →

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