Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil market regime

Edition no. 6,345 · August 14, 2025 · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

Another day of pressure. The session ended with the Perene at 23.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state23/100Today ▲ +6
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite43/100Today ▲ +9
how to read?
Risk below the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoSeptember 30, 2024
    Ibovespa that day131,816 pts
    the archive suggested+8% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months127,256 pts (-3%)
    Reread the edition of September 30, 2024 →
  2. ○Five years agoApril 2020
    Ibovespa 80,506 → 96,582 pts (+20% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveMarch 2001
    Ibovespa 13,981 → 10,233 pts (-27% in 6m) · reread →

In 64 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 61% of the time — median +5.4% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. December 31, 2007Perene 23
  2. September 30, 2001Perene 23
  3. November 30, 2024Perene 23 · defensive
  4. July 31, 2014Perene 24 · defensive
  5. November 30, 2009Perene 24
  6. January 31, 2014Perene 24 · neutral
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 136,356 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Browse the archive by phenomenon in the Observatory →

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